A new research paper challenges the assumption that AI is primarily responsible for the decline in junior hiring. Instead, it points to the rise of remote work as a key factor, especially in white-collar roles.
The Theory: Remote Work Hurts Junior Hires More
Early-career workers need supervision and learn by observing senior colleagues. Remote work adds friction to these processes, making entry-level hires more costly in time and resources. This worsens the trade-off for hiring juniors, while senior hires remain unaffected.
The Evidence: AI Link Disappears When Accounting for Remote Work
Researchers Peter John Lambert and Yannick Schindler analyzed millions of hires and job postings. They found that while both AI exposure and remote work rates correlate with weak junior hiring, the link with AI evaporates once you account for whether a role is remote. Jobs less exposed to AI but amenable to remote work (e.g., lawyers) also saw weak junior hiring; roles with high AI exposure but in-person (e.g., receptionists) held up better.
Implications: Remote Work’s Underestimated Impact
The study adds to evidence that remote work has significant, often overlooked effects. While it benefits mid-career workers (e.g., parents), it can harm the youngest. This explains why Gen Z prefers in-office work more than older generations.
The author argues that hybrid arrangements get the best results, but an extra day in the office may benefit juniors most, not bosses.
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